First outlook for later today shows a large area with a 10% chance for tornadoes over Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and a tiny bit of Texas. The chance for EF2 or stronger tornadoes is also 10%.
This amounts to an Enhanced Risk for tornadoes. The same area however has a 45% probability for large hail (>1 inch) and a 10% chance for hail of 2 inches or larger, leading to an overal Moderate Risk.
5 years ago
Back in 2011 the Super Outbreak had started. The night before four people had been killed when a wedge tornado struck Vilonia in Arkansas. SPC had issued a High Risk for April 26, driven by a 30% chance for (significant) tornadoes in the corners of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas. The day did bring many tornadoes, with the storm system continuing into the night. Overnight it turned into a line with strong wind gusts and tornadoes killing several people in Mississippi and causing widespread power outages.
25 years ago
This all comes on the 25th anniversary of the Andover, Kansas F5 tornado. Andover is just east of Wichita and pretty much in the center of today’s severe area. The Andover F5 was the last F5 tornado in Kansas, 16 laters the Greensburg, Kansas tornado was the first EF5.